Scenario's
During the first round of consultation in 2008 we asked the community how it thought growth should be managed in Hamilton and the surrounding towns and rural areas. We asked:
- What kind of place would you want it to be?
- Where would you or your children like to live?
- Where will you work?
- What is important to your lifestyle?
- What quality of environment would you want to have?
Future Proof developed three general directions or "scenarios" that imagined what the future may look like.
Consultation on the scenarios closed in November 2008.
Scenario 1 - This might be called business as usual - what the future may look like if we continue to do things much as we do today.
Although planning is dynamic and always under review, some of what we do today reflects thinking that may have been done 10 or even 20 years ago. Will this still be relevant into the future?
The market is already responding to some trends. Housing affordability and changing needs are seeing some moves toward more compact development with smaller sections. Rising fuel costs are making public transport more attractive. There is a strong desire to provide a wide range of choice for lifestyle and business investment. However, there are shortages of land for development because it is becoming more difficult to provide affordable roading and other services.
Scenario 2 -Compact settlement: This is a future based on the best ideas that have developed though recent consultation, research, and planning on growth issues.
We know that things are changing: people are aging, fuel costs are rising, houses are becoming less affordable, and people are concerned about the global effects of human activity.
Having a more compact city and more prudent management of rural land resources are currently seen as major steps towards a sustainable future, using less land and making transport more efficient. The protection and enhancement of bio-diversity and natural resources are a fundamental part of this approach.
The key feature of this scenario is that the area develops a number of compact urban and town centres that are self supporting.
Scenario 3 - Concentrated settlement: This is a more challenging future. We know we need to respond to change, but are we really doing enough? Will we still be able to get around and do business with increased fuel prices and congested roads? Should we be working much harder to save the best land for food production by reigning in sprawling urban development?
The third scenario lays down some more serious challenges and has a greater emphasis on sustainability, doing more to protect natural and physical resources, especially productive land. . Urban development is contained within tightly defined urban limits and greenbelts with an emphasis on higher density development within Hamilton City. There is increasing focus on protection and enhancement of biodiversity to offset the effects of more intensive development.
This Scenario has greater "contrast" in how the subregion develops: simply put, urban is more urban, and rural is more rural.
The key to this scenario is that significant growth is concentrated in Hamilton City to enable the city to develop into a diverse and vibrant metropolitan centre with distinctive and thriving towns and rural communities, and to enable a transition towards sunstainable infrastructure including transport systems .